Democrats are leading in five of the six Senate races being fought on seats currently held by Republicans, according to polling by the New York Times and Siena College on the eve of the midterm elections. In the sixth state, Iowa, the race appears to be essentially tied.
Among the most striking results are those from Texas and Kansas, where Democrats have not elected a senator since 1988 and 1932 respectively. In Texas, James Talarico stands at 50%, against Ken Paxton’s 43%; in Kansas, Hamilton leads Marshall 49% to 44%.
Democratic candidates are also ahead in Maine, with Jackson at 51% to Susan Collins’ 45%, and in Ohio, where Brown leads Husted 49% to 44%. The margins are narrower in Alaska, where Peltola leads Sullivan 48% to 46%, and in Iowa, where Turek edges Hinson 48% to 47%.
To win a Senate majority, the party must hold onto all of its current seats and flip at least four from the Republicans. In Michigan, where the seat is already held by a Democrat, Abdul El-Sayed is polling at 53% against Rogers’ 42%. However, the survey was conducted before Democrat Haley Stevens endorsed the Republican candidate.
Across the seven states surveyed, Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at just 38%. On the cost of living, Democrats hold an overall nine-point advantage and are drawing stronger support among independents in every race examined. Republicans, meanwhile, retain greater public trust on immigration control.
Polls remain indicators of voting intention, not confirmed outcomes. In Maine in 2020, Collins was re-elected by a wide margin despite every pre-election poll showing her trailing.
