Leggi in italiano
Current Affairs

Midterms 2026: Trump faces the cost-of-living test as Democrats eye Congress and 2028 already looms

Rising prices, healthcare costs and housing are shaping the November vote. A look at the races that could redraw America's political balance.

A close look at the United States

Politics, culture and American society: Insider.sm hosts an in-depth space dedicated to the United States, curated by Carlotta Andruccioli, a Sammarinese councillor with a degree in International and Diplomatic Sciences and author of the blog UScarly.

Born out of a passion for the US, this space tells the country’s story beyond the daily headlines, exploring its political dynamics, cultural shifts and contradictions. An opportunity to get a closer look at a reality that also shapes European debate and our everyday lives.

****

How much does it cost to live in America? This is one of the questions that could weigh most heavily on the midterm elections taking place in just over a week. Grocery shopping, paying rent, buying a home or covering healthcare expenses have become central concerns for millions of families. And when the cost of living rises, campaign promises collide with everyday reality.

A recently published Pew Research Center survey captures this unease well: 73% of Americans are very concerned about the price of food and consumer goods, 69% about healthcare costs and 66% about housing costs. A further 65% believe Donald Trump’s economic policies have made the country’s situation worse.

For a president who promised greater prosperity and a stronger America, this is a signal not to be underestimated. The November 3 vote will also serve as a verdict on his administration’s record, as well as on the Republicans’ ability to hold on to Congress.

Forecasts point to a path favourable to Democrats retaking the House of Representatives, while the Senate race remains far more uncertain. A victory in both chambers is a possible scenario, but it will hinge on a series of contests fought down to the last vote.

Should Democrats pull it off, Trump would face a far more hostile Congress: parliamentary oversight of the White House would intensify, along with hearings and investigations into the administration’s conduct, making it harder to push forward the presidential agenda.

Three states help illustrate what’s at stake.

In Georgia, a state Trump won in 2024 by a relatively narrow margin, Democrat Jon Ossoff will defend his Senate seat in a contest highlighting the influence of metropolitan areas, suburbs and more conservative territories — a race that could carry national consequences.

In Michigan, the Senate battle between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers brings industrial economy, jobs and international trade to the forefront, and it is interesting to watch how both parties are trying to respond to the economic anxieties of workers and families.

In Texas, a traditionally Republican state, the contest between James Talarico and Ken Paxton represents a test of Republican resilience and a long-term political challenge for Democrats.

These are three different faces of America that, of course, do not represent the entire country. Yet they offer valuable insights: the weight of the economy in voters’ choices, the rivalry between urban and rural areas, and the resilience of political balances.

There is also a question that goes beyond the race for seats: the reaction to the election result.

After the disputes surrounding the 2020 presidential election, it is inevitable to wonder how Trump and the Republican movement would respond to a possible defeat. It is impossible to predict whether the president would contest the result, nor can new protests be taken for granted. Still, the risk of political tension deserves attention, especially in a deeply polarised country.

Finally, everyone is already looking ahead to 2028. The midterms will not elect the next president, but they could help determine who enters the race for the White House in the strongest position.

Within the Republican Party, Vice President JD Vance is among the most closely watched names. Among Democrats, names already being discussed include Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg. Jon Ossoff too could gain national visibility, and I believe his will be a name we’ll keep hearing.

So November 3 will not simply decide who controls Congress. It will also gauge support for Trump, the Democrats’ ability to build an alternative, and Americans’ trust in their own institutions.

Because the real question is not just who will win the midterms, but what kind of America will emerge from the ballot box: a country ready to confirm the direction Trump has set, or one looking to put the brakes on it?

By Carlotta Andruccioli

Elezioni Usa, il 3 novembre si vota per le Midterm: urne già aperte in diversi Stati