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Beyond the fear factory: the facts about the Association Agreement (by Michele Muratori)

The series of in-depth columns curated by Michele Muratori, leader of the Libera group, continues, dedicated to analysing current political affairs, the main institutional challenges and the topics of greatest interest to the Republic of San Marino.

Seven centuries ago, within the silent naves of a Franciscan monastery, William of Ockham sharpened a principle destined to change the history of human thought forever. «Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem» — entities must not be multiplied without genuine necessity.

Known as Occam’s Razor, this golden rule was born as an act of pure intellectual hygiene, meant to raze labyrinthine constructs and far-fetched explanations to the ground. Faced with any major change, the simplest, most straightforward explanation, free of unnecessary embellishment, is almost always the true one.

In the debate surrounding the Association Agreement between the Republic of San Marino and the European Union, exactly the opposite is happening. The reality of the texts is being constantly overwhelmed by a swirl of ready-made nightmares evoking surrendered sovereignty, rampant crime and an unstoppable wave of immigration supposedly poised to erase the identity of the Titano.

To disarm this factory of phantoms, all it takes is picking up that old medieval razor and letting the facts speak for themselves in their transparent clarity.

The most widespread alarm concerns the idea that the Agreement would throw open the doors to uncontrolled migratory flows from non-EU countries. To imagine such a scenario, one would have to believe that San Marino is signing a treaty of political accession to the Union (accession, not association!), thereby giving up its sovereignty over its borders.

The legal reality flatly contradicts this narrative. The agreement is exclusively with the European Union, and San Marino remains a third country, entirely excluded from European policy on non-EU immigration. This means 0% of European asylum directives applicable to the Titano and 0 reception quotas imposed from outside, preserving 100% autonomy in managing entries from states outside the Union.

Even the chapter on the movement of European citizens tells a purely mathematical truth. The Agreement sets an annual quota for EU citizens of 90-100 residency permits, covering both permanent residency and short stays, with very modest annual increases.

As clarified by Secretary of State Luca Beccari during the proceedings of the Foreign Affairs Commission, the actual figures of San Marino’s current trend show that the Republic already absorbs, without any difficulty, far higher volumes. Total residency permits have consistently exceeded 260-270 units per year, rising from 253 in 2021 to 270 in 2024 and maintaining the same steady trend in the most recent years as well.

Looking further at residence permits for work, study or exceptional reasons, San Marino already manages a real pressure of around 800-900 positions per year out of roughly 1,500 total permits. The quota set out in the Agreement for annual residency permits is therefore not a threat, but a threshold that is amply compatible with the country’s reception capacity.

As convincingly argued by Gerardo Giovagnoli in his piece on Insider.sm, the demographic and labour-market needs stem from internal dynamics such as the demographic decline, not from European rules. The Association Agreement simply takes note of this reality and regulates it through a clear framework and safeguard clauses.

The same rigour must be applied to the security phobia. San Marino ranks among the top countries in the world for safety and for the extremely high sense of security felt by citizens and visitors alike, even at night, as confirmed by the international analyses of Squaremouth and Numbeo, reported by the media.

The certainty that a woman can go for a jog in Parco Ausa in the dead of night in complete safety is the everyday normality of a country protected by the thorough commitment of our three law-enforcement bodies. The Association Agreement does not undermine this model in the slightest, since closer judicial and police cooperation with European countries will provide even more advanced technological and informational tools to safeguard our peace of mind.

Finally, there remain doubts about an alleged loss of sovereignty or about the timeframes for transposing regulations — but here too, the texts offer clear and solid safeguards.

Fiscal policy, direct and indirect taxation, the public budget and criminal justice remain exclusively national competences. The Agreement fully recognises the specific nature of our State, allowing us to maintain restrictions and safeguards on the purchase of properties used as second residences by non-residents, and it guarantees San Marino the right to activate specific safeguard clauses in the event of serious demographic or sectoral imbalances.

Gradual alignment with common rules represents the natural evolution needed to overcome the customs and bureaucratic barriers that currently hold back our exporting companies, opening the doors of the Single Market and finally allowing our banking and financial system to operate and grow on a European scale.

When anxiety about tomorrow takes over, the mind builds dark labyrinths to justify fears that have no basis in fact. It is precisely at such moments that we must let the timeless teaching of William of Ockham shine through.

Let us cut away unverified suspicions, sever the theorems dictated by panic, and let fall the phantoms that have no right to exist in reality.

What remains, in its bare and clear simplicity, is not the surrender of a country, but the courageous act of an ancient Republic choosing to open its windows to the world without ever throwing its doors wide open to uncertainty.

San Marino is not losing itself — it is simply taking the place that belongs to it in the future.