The most likely battleground is the House of Representatives, where Democrats appear to have a stronger chance of winning back the majority. Various forecasts suggest they could gain between 20 and 25 seats, reaching around 240. A net advantage of just four seats is enough to secure control of the House.

Winning the Senate, however, is a far tougher challenge. Republicans currently hold 53 seats to the Democrats’ 47. To flip the majority, Democrats would need to pick up four additional seats while holding all of their own — a decidedly harder task, not least because many of the contested seats are in states that voted for Trump in 2024.

But what would actually change if Democrats managed to win control of Congress, or at least one of the two chambers?

Taking the House would allow the opposition to seize control of congressional committees, launch investigations into the administration’s conduct, hold hearings and demand documents. Trump would then have to contend with a far more hostile Congress, capable of subjecting his administration to constant political scrutiny.

Winning the Senate would have even more significant consequences on another front: presidential appointments. It is the Senate that confirms federal judges, cabinet secretaries, ambassadors and numerous other institutional figures. A Democratic majority could therefore slow down or block the President’s choices, including any potential Supreme Court nomination.

Such a scenario would echo, in reverse, what happened in 2016, when Republicans blocked President Obama from appointing a new Supreme Court justice after the death of Antonin Scalia.

Polls point to a climate favourable to Democrats, at least on the national level. An NPR/PBS News/Marist survey, conducted a week before the vote, gives Democratic candidates 52% support compared to 44% for Republicans. Among independent voters, the gap would be even wider: 52% to 39%.

A particularly telling figure concerns Trump’s weight in voters’ decisions: 44% say they intend to vote mainly against the President, while 21% say they will vote primarily in his favour. For 35%, Trump is not the deciding factor.

Americans’ priorities also seem to point to trouble for the White House. The cost of living is cited as the top concern by 34% of respondents, followed by the state of democracy at 33%. Immigration, foreign policy and healthcare trail further behind.

The economy could prove to be the decisive factor. 38% of voters say their financial situation has worsened over the past year, while only 15% say they are better off.

The heaviest burden comes from the cost of essential goods and rising energy and fuel prices, in an international context made even more unstable by the conflict with Iran. This is a sensitive issue for Trump, who during the 2024 campaign had promised to curb inflation and make the cost of living more affordable.

Several states deserve particular attention, as they could prove decisive for the balance of the Senate and, at the same time, offer clues about the future internal dynamics of both parties.

In North Carolina, Democrats are backing a highly popular candidate, a former governor of the state, while the Republican campaign has reportedly scaled back its activity over time.

In Maine, meanwhile, Republican Susan Collins can rely on a solid reputation as a moderate. Democrats have chosen Troy Jackson after Graham Platner withdrew, his candidacy having been engulfed by controversy.

Texas is also worth watching, where Democrat James Talarico is seeking a historic result: no Democratic candidate has won a federal Senate seat in the state since 1988. Other territories to keep an eye on include Ohio, Nebraska, Mississippi, Montana and South Carolina.

Michigan is especially interesting, where Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed represents the party’s more left-leaning wing. Whether he wins or loses could fuel debate over which direction Democrats should take ahead of the next presidential election.

Finally, the case of Alaska deserves attention, where two candidates with the same name appear on the ballot: Dan Sullivan, the outgoing Republican senator, and Dan J. Sullivan, an independent candidate.

A New York Times investigation has raised questions about a recruitment operation involving the latter, allegedly involving people close to the Democratic campaign and the national party, with the aim of siphoning votes away from his opponent.

While the matter does not in itself amount to wrongdoing, it risks carrying political and reputational consequences.

But these elections are already looking beyond 2026: the real horizon is 2028.

For Democrats, names like Jon Ossoff, James Talarico, Abdul El-Sayed and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could become central figures in the debate over the party’s leadership and future identity. On the Republican side, meanwhile, possible protagonists include Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Marjorie Taylor Greene and commentator Tucker Carlson.

The outcome on November 3 will not, of course, determine who runs for the White House in two years’ time, but it will help define which figures can strengthen their standing and which strategies might prove successful.

The midterm elections, then, will not simply be a referendum on Donald Trump’s record. They could become the first real test for the future of American politics — a vote capable of redrawing the balance of power in Washington and effectively kicking off the long race toward 2028.