Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro head into tomorrow’s presidential runoff in a virtual dead heat. The latest Datafolha poll gives both candidates 50% of valid votes.
When undecided voters, blank and spoiled ballots are factored in, the senator — son of former president Jair Bolsonaro — stands at 47%, against 46% for the outgoing president. The gap remains within the two-point margin of error.
The survey, conducted from 20 to 22 October among 2,520 voters, points to a recovery for Lula. The decisive factor could be the more than 33 million Brazilians who did not vote in the first round on 4 October, a group both candidates have been courting intensely in their final appeals.
Lula is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term, campaigning on social policy and the fight against poverty. Bolsonaro is running on a conservative platform centred on security and the economy.
The outcome will also have major implications for the protection of the Amazon and Brazil’s international relations: Lula has strengthened ties with China, while his challenger is looking to deepen the relationship with Donald Trump’s United States.
