The series of in-depth columns curated by Michele Muratori, leader of the Libera group, continues, dedicated to the analysis of current political affairs, the main institutional challenges and the issues of greatest interest to the Republic of San Marino.
From the slogan Yes We Can to the era of Make America Great Again, the participation of younger generations continues to prove one of the decisive factors in understanding the political trajectory and democratic resilience of the United States.
In September 2014, speaking at the United Nations Climate Summit, Barack Obama delivered a warning destined to define the generational responsibility of Gen Z, noting that it was the first generation to feel the impact of climate change and the last able to do something effective about it (Obama UN Speech).
Those words echoed the ideal momentum that in 2008 had brought 66% of under-30 voters to the polls, giving Democrats a margin of 34 percentage points and turning the ecological transition, civil rights and multilateralism into the pillars of the progressive coalition.
Today, with the upcoming midterm elections on the horizon, the picture appears considerably more complex, making the battle for control of Congress a crucial test of the progressive camp’s ability to once again mobilize young voters against the platform and vision of the right led by Donald Trump.
The gap between the legacy of the Obama era and the approach of the conservative movement reflects a deep divide over the very idea of the country’s development.
While the Democratic platform has focused on investment in the ecological transition and international agreements, Trump’s line has reasserted the centrality of fossil fuels and the rollback of environmental regulations.
Yet the notion of a Gen Z uniformly drifting to the right is contradicted by the polling data.
Findings from the Harvard Youth Poll show that, in the generic congressional ballot, Democrats retain a significant advantage of 17 points among registered young voters, proof that social and environmental priorities remain deeply rooted among the majority of the new generation.
The real danger for the progressive camp lies in the fragmentation of consensus and the growing disillusionment with traditional politics.
Unlike previous generations, Gen Z navigates a deeply polarized information ecosystem, in which news consumption and public debate take place almost exclusively through digital platforms and social media.
In this virtual space, the systemic enthusiasm for grand collective narratives has gradually given way to a more fluid but also more fragile form of activism, one exposed to information fatigue and disenchantment, where algorithms often tend to fuel resentment and distrust rather than constructive participation.
Adding further complexity to the picture is a clear gender divide within the same generational bloc.
While among young women and female university students, battles over reproductive rights, environmental protection and fair wages maintain a left-leaning preference margin of more than 19 points, the impact of inflation and the cost of living has opened significant openings for conservative rhetoric among young men, particularly those without a university degree.
This split reveals a two-speed set of priorities among under-30 voters, where identity issues and civil rights intertwine with growing concern over financial stability and prospects for social mobility.
At the same time, demographic trends point to a weakening of certain historic loyalties among social groups.
While remaining the most ethnically diverse generation in American history, the youth vote within African American and Hispanic communities no longer guarantees monolithic support for the Democratic Party, showing signs of frustration in the face of everyday economic hardship.
Even among young people who report personal financial struggles, more than half express skepticism about the right’s protectionist and tariff policies, fearing their long-term impact on purchasing power — yet the perceived lack of decisive answers from institutions is fueling a drift toward abstention.
It is within this complex dynamic that the balance of the upcoming midterms will be decided.
For the Republican strategy, the main goal is not necessarily to win over Gen Z ideologically — since most young people harbor reservations about the right’s agenda and its climate skepticism — but rather to encourage its gradual disengagement from voting.
A decline in youth turnout, which in midterm elections has historically hovered around 27%, ends up benefiting the conservative electoral base, traditionally older and more disciplined in showing up at the polls.
Conversely, in election cycles where youth participation has been high, under-30 voters have proven to be the decisive force in containing the advance of right-wing candidates in key districts.
From the enthusiasm of the Yes We Can era to the pragmatism of the present moment, the awareness among younger generations of the importance of political representation remains a key factor.
In this encounter with the ballot box, Gen Z’s political leanings and its ability to overcome abstention represent not merely an electoral variable for the Democratic Party, but the true barometer of the resilience of progressive values in the future of American democracy.
