The periodic consultation under Article IV has concluded with an overall positive assessment for San Marino.
The International Monetary Fund delegation, led by Trevor Lessard, met with the Secretary of State for Finance, Marco Gatti, and on Thursday, 5 November, released the results of its talks with Sammarinese institutions. The message is clear and, as is often the case with Fund reports, two-sided: the fundamentals have improved, but the hardest work is only just beginning.
The headline figure is public debt, which has fallen below the 60% threshold of Gross Domestic Product. It is a symbolic milestone, one that brings the Republic in line with one of the historic benchmarks of European economic architecture — and one that, only a few years ago, would have seemed far from certain.
On growth, forecasts point to a 1.3% expansion in 2026, expected to slow to around 1% in 2027. Unemployment remains at its lowest-ever levels, while inflation, which stood at 1.6% at the end of June, is expected to average 2.5% annually.
The Fund recommends continuing to strengthen the primary surplus, which it considers essential for keeping debt under control.
The most politically significant passage concerns the Association Agreement with the European Union.
For Lessard, it represents a concrete opportunity for growth, but on one precise condition: that the country manages to accompany it with structural reforms, a more efficient administrative machine and greater implementation capacity. This is a point that deserves to be taken seriously.
European integration does not deliver benefits by default: it does so only when the state is able to transpose rules, manage procedures and engage with Brussels at the pace the single market demands.
Attention also remains high on the banking system.
The Fund is calling for constant supervision and the completion of the transformations already under way in the sector, since financial stability is the precondition for investor confidence.
It is no coincidence that this assessment comes in the same days that the Court has concluded, at first instance, one of the symbolic trials of the banking crisis: the past is being closed, but credibility is built anew every day.
The mission concluded with an audience before the Captains Regent, Gerardo Giovagnoli and William Casali, who underlined the strategic value of cooperation with the Fund.
The conclusion is easy to state and less easy to achieve: San Marino has put its finances back in order, and must now prove it can turn stability into development. Europe offers the space — it is up to us to fill it.
