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A real estate market out of control

Can an average worker in San Marino still afford to buy a home? A new RETE analysis suggests the answer is increasingly no.

How much does it cost to buy a home in San Marino today? Is the real estate market currently sustainable for citizens with “normal” incomes?

To answer these questions, a RETE working group carried out a statistical survey based on all the property listings available on Immobiliare.it and Idealista.it, excluding listings that did not show a price and those for properties larger than 200 m2.

The analysis considered 164 listings for residential properties for sale in our country, and the data was processed into statistics that offer a revealing snapshot of the current housing supply.

The results are troubling. Half of the apartments surveyed cost more than €420,000. The median price is €4,134/m2, with a peak of €5,421/m2 in Domagnano.

 

Let’s look at two examples:

  • A single worker

At these prices, a 55 m2 apartment costs around €227,000. A mortgage for this amount (assuming the bank even agrees to finance the full sum, which is rare) currently carries an average fixed rate of 4.52%, according to the Central Bank of San Marino (BCSM). Over a 20-year term, and factoring in the state interest subsidy, the average monthly payment would be €1,100.

  • A family with two working spouses and two children

A household like this needs a home of at least 100 m2. Currently, such an apartment can be found on the market for an average of €413,000. Using the same calculation, and factoring in the state subsidy, the monthly installment on a twenty-year mortgage would amount to roughly €2,240.

According to industry experts, a sustainable mortgage payment should not exceed 30–35% of net disposable income. So how much does one need to earn to stay within these sustainability limits? And how much do most Sammarinese actually earn?

Based on these figures, we can do some calculations and draw a conclusion.

The average gross territorial salary stands at €2,249 per month.

After deducting taxes and social security contributions, roughly €1,800 per month remains.

In this scenario — which applies to thousands of Sammarinese — the mortgage cost (even with state assistance) would eat up 60% of household income. With the remaining 40%, one must still buy clothes, pay bills (ever more expensive), cover grocery costs (also rising), and pay for the purchase, maintenance and fuel(!) of a car: it doesn’t take an in-depth study to understand that, under these conditions, the average worker is on the brink of poverty.

A brink that widens rapidly in the event of an unexpected expense — a car repair, a dentist’s bill, and so on.

In fact, to stay within the 30% sustainability threshold, one would need a net income of around €3,700 per month (double that for a family). These are figures more than twice the average territorial salary.

It doesn’t take an in-depth study to see that the situation has become unsustainable. Speculation is out of control.

Is our country becoming a place where anyone earning less than €3,700 a month cannot afford a home? The data suggests exactly that. More and more citizens, especially young people, are now choosing to live outside the territory: they continue to work in San Marino, contributing to its development, but can no longer afford to live there.

In upcoming instalments, I will present some proposals for addressing this issue. I can anticipate that RETE is working on a bill, which will be presented during a public meeting on 12 November.

Giovanni M. Zonzini

Se la rendita divora il salario – di Giovanni Maria Zonzini